Early look at Eagles-49ers: Where does each team have an advantage? (2024)

The Athletic has live coverage of the 49ers vs Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

Some scattered thoughts on the NFC Championship Game as the long wait for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET continues.

49ers offense vs. Eagles defense

• It’s a measure of how good and evenly matched these teams are that a game between the No. 6 offense and No. 6 defense by DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) feels like the undercard. Brock Purdy has literally never lost an NFL game as a starting quarterback, and the San Francisco offense improved once he took over — it went from 0.21 expected points added (EPA) per drive in Weeks 1-12 to 0.43 since Week 13, including the playoffs. That 0.43 EPA per drive would have been good for No. 4 in the league over the course of the season.

The anecdotal book on Purdy is that, like the Kyle Shanahan prototype, he gets rid of the ball quickly and mostly throws short and over the middle of the field. The numbers only sort of back that up. His average time to throw, per TruMedia, is 2.78 seconds, which would rank 25th of 34 qualifying quarterbacks. His average depth of target is 7.61 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, good for 20th.

He definitely throws over the middle of the field, though. According to TruMedia, 62 percent of Purdy’s passes this season, including the playoffs, have been between the numbers. The league average is 44.6 percent.

• Given that penchant, there figures to be a lot of stress placed on the middle of the Eagles’ defense. This note courtesy of The Athletic’s Aaron Reiss might surprise you: No defense in the league has allowed fewer yards after the catch per reception on in-breaking routes this season than Philadelphia (2.0). Jonathan Gannon’s unit has allowed in-breaking routes to turn into explosive gains (defined as 16 yards or more) just 13.5 percent of the time, the third-lowest rate in the league, and ranks 10th in defensive success rate on those plays. San Francisco, for the fifth year running, led the league in in-breaking routes.

• If one of the Eagles’ defensive superpowers — having Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the outside — is somewhat muted by that middle-of-the-field focus, we’ll see whether they get Avonte Maddox back from the toe injury that has kept him out since Week 16.

“We’re hopeful,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said of Maddox on Monday, “but he’s still got to get out there and run on the field and do drills, so it’s not something that we know quite yet because there’s some unknown of some of the football movements that he has to go out there and do. We’ll see.”

If Maddox is unable to return, C.J. Gardner-Johnson will presumably remain in the slot when the Eagles have at least five defensive backs on the field, with Reed Blankenship filling in at safety. Blankenship has really impressed and has the physicality to match up with the Niners’ offense, but the lack of speed we saw on that one Christian Watson touchdown in Week 12 might cause some mid-week nightmares for Eagles fans with Deebo Samuel coming to town.

• The Eagles will encounter the endangered species of fullbacks this weekend. San Francisco lined up in 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) 32.3 percent of the time this season, per TruMedia, the second-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense saw the third-fewest snaps of 21 personnel (but ranked eighth in defensive success rate when they did). It’s not quite the same thing, but the Eagles fared well in general against heavier packages. They finished second in the league in EPA per play and fifth in defensive success rate against 12 personnel.

• Christian McCaffrey as a receiver will be a problem to solve for Gannon this week. Over the course of the season, here’s how the Eagles’ passing defense ranked against different types of receivers, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA:

No. 1 WRs: No. 2

No. 2 WRs: No. 4

“Other”: No. 22

TE: No. 6

RB: No. 24

Eagles offense vs. 49ers defense

• The main event. One of the league’s best offenses against the league’s best defense, with a titanic strength-on-strength matchup in the running game. It’s true the Niners’ defense has not really faced an offense with a running threat at quarterback like Jalen Hurts (they played Justin Fields in Week 1 in a pseudo-monsoon before the Bears’ offense changed its identity to embrace Fields’ running), but there aren’t many threats like Hurts to begin with.

Hurts and the Eagles opened things up with their willingness to run despite his injured shoulder against the Giants in the divisional round, though the game was so lopsided they didn’t need to embrace it fully. That might change Sunday for a team that has prided itself in the past on running through the top run defenses in the league.

• One thing the Eagles did so well all season, and cranked up against the Giants, was play against personnel type. They spread things out to run and throw the ball out of heavy formations. Including the playoffs, the Eagles are averaging a league-best 0.17 EPA per rush out of 11 personnel while also averaging a league-best 0.42 EPA per dropback out of 12 personnel.

The Niners’ defense has been just as great against the run out of 11 personnel (0.18 defensive EPA per rush, No. 1 in the league) but does drop down to 15th in defensive EPA per dropback against 12 personnel.

• If there is a relative weakness in the Niners’ run defense, it might be short yardage. Per Reiss, San Francisco ranks 31st in third-and-short defense, allowing opponents to convert 69.6 percent of the time, including the playoffs. The Eagles rank No. 3 in third-and-short conversion rate (68.5 percent).

• One personnel tweak we saw from the Eagles in the divisional round was a little more Zach Pascal at the expense of Quez Watkins. That could make sense again in a game that figures to be physical, but there might also be an opportunity to pop Watkins for a big play down the field (like they did in the Week 2 matchup of the 2021 season when Watkins caught a 91-yard pass). According to Football Outsiders, San Francisco ranked 24th in DVOA against deep passes while, according to TruMedia, it ranked 26th in EPA per play and 23rd in defensive success rate against passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield.

• San Francisco’s defense versus different types of receivers, per Football Outsiders:

No. 1 WRs: No. 4

No. 2 WRs: No. 18

“Other”: No. 30

TE: No. 13

RB: No. 1

• It just feels like this will be the game in which the Eagles need their organizational investment in having perhaps the league’s best tandem of wide receivers to pay off. Nothing is likely to come easy, so DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown will need to make important plays on contested catches. The two combined for just 83 yards receiving on nine catches against the Giants. Brown, who had just three receptions for 22 yards, was seen on the sideline upset about something and did not speak in the locker room after the game. Sirianni confirmed Monday it was in part because he wanted more touches.

“He’s always going to want the ball,” Sirianni said. “He’s a really good player. Not really anybody in the pass game really got a lot of targets or a lot of opportunities because we were running the ball so well. But that’s what you want from your receivers, to want to have the football. Part of the reason why receivers are good is because they want and crave the football. They want the ball to change the game. But make no mistake about it, he was thrilled that we won the football game. Always wants to be involved, obviously, in the plan. He blocked his butt off, and you could see how excited he was when he sprang that block for DeVonta’s touchdown.”

There’s a good chance Brown will get what he wants Sunday.

(Photo: Bill Streicher / USA Today)